After a year of record-breaking violence, Mexico and Sonora — Arizona’s neighbor to the south — are off to a bad start in 2020.

The number of murder victims nationwide over the first three months of 2020 was up less than 1% over the same period in 2019, according to federal data analyzed by KJZZ. But in Sonora, that figure rose nearly 50% — the third biggest jump in Mexico — even as anti-coronavirus measures were implemented in the state.

“Unfortunately, there’s nothing encouraging to see over these first three months,” said Manuel Hoyos, head of the Observatorio Sonora por la Seguridad, a Sonoran citizens group that focuses on public safety.

Many hoped the deployment of the National Guard, among other measures, would quickly reduce violence. In Guaymas, one of several Sonoran cities where military heads took over police forces last fall, murder cases were up nearly 400% over the first three months of 2019.

→ As Murders Surge, Rising Violence Tests Sonora, Mexico

Without a comprehensive strategy to reduce violence, Hoyos doesn’t think that the strict stay-at-home policies implemented by the state to confront the COVID-19 pandemic will do anything to reduce the upward trend in violence.

“Criminals aren’t going to stay home,” he said.

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