After a second-quarter plunge in 2020, Sonora’s economy bounced back, but not as much as other Mexican states.

Like every Mexican state and much of the world, Sonora’s economy fell off of a cliff in the second quarter of 2020, tumbling more than 16% as coronavirus cases rose and restrictions to slow its spread went into effect,

But its rebound of 9.5% in the third quarter was one of the more modest recoveries in the country, according to the most recent federal data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography. Twenty-two of Mexico's 32 states had larger quarter-to-quarter percentage rebounds. 

“It gives us an idea that the rebound or the recovery of the Sonoran economy is weak, it’s fragile,” said Álvaro Bracamonte, a researcher with the Colegio de Sonora. “It’s below the rest of the border economies, which are exactly those it should be compared to.”

The only border state with a lower third-quarter rebound was northeastern Tamaulipas, Bracamonte noted.

Since the third quarter, the pandemic has significantly worsened and restrictive measures have returned, which Bracamonte said could further weaken the recovery.

A quick recovery is dependent on widespread vaccination, according to Bracamonte, but he pointed out that the effort so far in Mexico has been relatively slow.