1 in 4 Arizonans will likely be infected by omicron in January
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Arizona continues to average more than 20,000 COVID-19 infections per day — more than double the average number of daily cases that were reported during last winter's peak. Modeling from the University of Arizona suggests cases will begin declining soon, but a huge portion of the state’s population will have been infected by the time Arizona's omicron wave begins receding.
Dr. Joe Gerald with the University of Arizona’s Zuckerman College of Public Health said the record-high case numbers the state has been reporting are probably only a fraction of the virus cases that are actually out there.
“For every case that we know through testing, there are two or three additional cases out there that are either asymptomatic or people didn’t take the trouble or time to get tested, so they go unrecognized by the public health system,” Gerald told KJZZ News.
In his weekly COVID-19 report, Gerald calculates that one in four Arizonans will be infected by the highly contagious omicron variant just in the month of January.
But Gerald expects the soaring numbers won’t last much longer.
“I think we’re living through the peak in the moment right now. And certainly before the end of the month we will have peaked and be on our way back down, at least for cases," Gerald said.
Even after daily case counts begin to decline, Gerald expects strain on Arizona’s hospitals will continue. He expects emergency rooms and general wards will be dangerously overburdened for weeks to come.
"If there's a piece that's a little uncertain, it's what will the downside of this peak look like?" Gerald said. "Will it be steep and sheer like some of the other peaks? Or will it flatten out and leave us with a higher level of transmission for many many weeks following the peak?"
