Though still quite dark, recent murder data out of neighboring Sonora leaves some room for cautious optimism.

For some time now, each new year has brought a new, annual murder record for Sonora. But over the first three months of 2022, there has been a slight reduction in both murder victims and cases, according to analysis by the Observatorio Sonora por la Seguridad. 

“We hope this is something sustained, that it is going down,” said Krimilda Bernal, director of the group. “And also that it’s the product of new security strategies.”

The drop was modest — 448 victims, down just three from the first three months of the year before — but it’s the first time there’s been a drop in the first quarter since 2018. Femicides, or the murder of women because of their gender, showed a much more substantial drop — 28% — over the same period.