After years of broken murder records, Sonora may be on track for less violent 2022.

Rates of violence are still very high in neighboring Sonora, but recent data suggest a downward trend could be at hand.

Since at least 2015, each year has brought a new murder record for Sonora, with last year’s nearly 2,000 victims giving the state one of the country’s highest murder rates. But over the first six months of 2022, federal data show there were 87 fewer victims than the same period the year prior.

“This is good news because after so long, for the first time in a period longer than a month, we have a downward trend, which we hope lasts for the rest of the year,” said Marco Antonio Paz, a spokesperson for Sonora’s and Hermosillo’s public security citizens committees.

But there are reasons to be cautious. For one, Paz said that the significant presence of National Guard and military forces could be at play in the reduction, but their presence isn’t permanent. If state and local security capacity isn’t improved, the promising data could be fleeting, according to Paz.