Debate over school vouchers and funding filled 2023. What does the future hold for Arizona schools?
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As usual, there was a lot of discussion — and debate — about education in Arizona in 2023. And a good deal of it focused on the state’s universal Empowerment Scholarship Account, or ESA, program — essentially school vouchers.
The program proved to be bigger — and more expensive — than lawmakers had originally planned. Critics called for it to be capped or scrapped, while supporters said Arizona could pay for the program.
The Show spoke with Lisa Graham Keegan about the ESA program and education more broadly in 2023, and what she’s looking ahead to in the new year.
Keegan is a former state schools superintendent and a partner at the Keegan Companies. The conversation began with whether she foresees any changes to the ESA program in 2024.
Full interview
LISA GRAHAM KEEGAN: You know, Mark, there could be changes, but I think it will be wise to continue to monitor what's going on. They've got an ad hoc committee. I think was a great idea, necessary idea. It was predictable, right, that everybody who was already in private school would want to take advantage of the ESA.
So you've got this massive sort of hockey stick look to the ESA program. Not, you know, that's not gonna, that won't happen a second year. And Alan Maguire was saying the same thing, anytime you set up a program that a lot of families actually do want access to, you're going to get this in the first year.
The other thing that it does in that very first year is that it shows you the information that you don't have, that you would like to have. Questions that you start asking, many of them maybe about performance. How are these kids doing, about where are these kids coming from? Data that needs to be collected. So it's hard to take action on what you don't know yet.
Well, so you mentioned the, the ad hoc committee, and it had it its second and some are saying final meeting in November and did not issue any recommendations for new legislation related to ESAs. It sounds like despite some criticism of that, it sounds like you're, you're more of a wait, wait and see mode, and maybe there will be ideas for, for tweaks down the road.
KEEGAN: I'm a wait and continue to learn and then see. So I wouldn't do away with that committee. I, I try to keep something like that in place. I, I think that's a good idea and it's a place for public airing of praise and grievances. I just think you've got to have it in a program this big. But no, I would not take action on, I don't know how they can come up with recommendations yet. You know, what you're looking at is just a whole lot of people who are liking this program and want to use it, and you can sort of see where they're coming from but not where they, the students, where are the students coming from? Where were they in school before? Are they moving from one sector of schooling, like public schooling into private schooling? Were they in homeschooling and coming into private schools or are they leaving schools and going into homeschooling? I think that's important for us to understand.
Well, so let's assume that what you were suggesting happened is what will happen in terms of this huge influx of people right at the beginning, which will, you know, start to trickle out as you know, the people who want ESAs are getting them and sort of the universe of people who still want them after that begins to diminish. That's still a lot of money and a lot more money than legislators were anticipating spending on this program that the state's gonna be spending on it while we're sort of gathering more data, right.
KEEGAN: That's right. In my opinion, the Legislature was just dishonest. There's no way in the world where that you can know you got 50,000 some odd kids in private schools, you just gave everybody an opportunity for the state to support that education the way they do when parents choose a public school, that those parents would not say, "Yeah, I'd like, I'd like to be paid for my child to go to school, too." It was always going to happen, and I felt like that was really not smart.
So, anyway, it was totally predictable. What I do think is still incredible is the number of parents that added to those already in private schools because it hasn't yet been enough time for new schools to start that are started on the premise that they will take ESA students.
So we don't really know, there's not a fixed number of schools out there, they come and go. So there's gonna be a response to this and it's gonna happen over time. I don't think that's alarming. And as Alan Maguire pointed out, the state can manage this funding because it is, we fund by student. And when the students move, you know, the money moves. The big uptick was bringing the private school kids that were already in private schools onto the rolls, state is able to manage that as Alan said, so, but I just don't anticipate that's going to continue to increase in a way that can't be managed.
In terms of the ongoing spending on this though, are you concerned about that? Especially given the fact that, you know, budget forecasters are projecting the state dealing with several $100 million shortfall for the rest of this fiscal year and the next one?
KEEGAN: You know, it's interesting, Mark. I was looking at legislative comments on both sides of the aisle over the last couple of weeks, and what you're hearing from everybody is we're not cutting schools, we're not cutting schools. We're looking to raise teacher pay up over $60,000, which that's up over the national average would be great for Arizona, and it would be great if that money would get all the way to teachers, by the way.
So I'm not hearing anybody that's saying they don't believe that we will be able to keep up with all of the schooling costs.
Do you think that the, the combination of more families taking ESAs and going to private schools or homeschooling or whatever they're, they're doing with them. Plus the, the budget situation. Does that make it more likely, do you think, that in general public schools will get less money next year than they have been getting?
KEEGAN: No, not unless they get fewer students than they were getting before. No, I do not. I think it will be increased. And I was watching conversations about renewing Prop. 123, which is going to be need renewal and, by 15, and the only argument is about how to get this money. It's about $300 million. How you keep that $300 million, not whether or not to do it. There's no nobody who's saying we don't need it.
So I'm not hearing, as you did in the past, you know, lots of times you hear all the schools have enough money and they're not using it. Well, we're just going to. That's not what you're listening to at all.
And I think you saw that actually in the public, in these bond elections that went through, most of them where you have a significant percentage of parents in school districts. Those passed pretty easily, the bonds that go down are in nonparent majority school districts in the main.
I'm glad you brought up the bond and override issue because I wanted to ask you about that. And as you say, a lot of them that were on the ballot did pass in, in November in the election. I'm wondering what message you take from that in terms of how voters are looking at schools and maybe how they're looking at school funding more broadly.
KEEGAN: Yeah, Mark I, I think that the public is by and large in favor of more school funding over time. Now, what that looks like? It always depends on how you ultimately pitch it, right.
So, but I, I have to say that it's pretty inescapable conclusion in Arizona right now, those bonds passed, by far the majority of the issues passed. So, and it's telling you about highly motivated people in the main. So this is an interesting cross section, right? But those people also vote in general elections, as sort of a foundation group of voters.
So, to me it's always interesting and it does tell you important things about what the public's thinking.
All right. So, understanding that crystal balls are often foggy and unreliable, I'm curious to have you look into yours and predict what you think will be the biggest education related issue in the state Legislature, or maybe just in the state in 2024.
KEEGAN: Oh, gosh, Mark. Yeah, that, that's a foggy crystal ball, for sure.
No shame in being wrong about it.
KEEGAN: No, no, no. Oh, no, I never have any shame in being wrong. I don't know, number one, but I'm gonna guess it's gonna have to do with how much money is on the table and I hate to be so predictable, by the way, that's always the biggest issue, Mark. So that's a bold leap into the status quo for you right there. You're welcome.
So it's gonna be money. And I do think there's gonna be a tussle over ESAs. There won't be, in my opinion, there won't be any changes to it in '24. That's my prediction.
I, I don't think that's merited at this point, but amounts of money to schools I do think is gonna be a big issue, and because '24 is an election year, you're gonna see more, rather than less money.
