National Park Service

Lake Mead.

Arizona water managers are doing some soul searching. With its largest water source — the Colorado River — still running low, the state is developing a plan to reduce how much it takes from the river.

The chance of Arizona losing Colorado River water is only 10 percent for next year. But in the years after, the outlook rises to above 50 percent. Whether or not a shortage happens is based on the water level at Lake Mead.

Under the 2007 agreement, Arizona is among the first to lose water and gives up more than any other state. While that will still be the case, Arizona, Nevada and California are in the process of reworking the deal. They hope to leave more water in the massive reservoir to stop even more austere cutbacks later on, said Clint Chandler with the state’s Department of Water Resources.

“Those reductions are similar to an insurance premium," said Chandler. "So through these actions we are attempting to minimize future uncertainties.”

The proposed plan would have Arizona give up more than 190,000 acre feet when the lake's elevation is between 1,090 and 1,075 feet. 

In the coming months, Chandler said they will try to determine which users will take that hit. But he points out the agreement also forces California to give up water if the situation becomes serious enough.