New data shows by 2029 only about 17% of Arizona high school students will pursue a four-year college degree if recent trends continue.

The research was conducted by Tempe-based Noble Predictive Insights.

“Only 46% of Arizona’s 2020 high school graduates pursued education beyond high school. And then, only 28% of Arizona’s 2020 high school graduates pursued a four-year degree,” according to Mike Noble, chief researcher for the firm that bears his name.

He said the pandemic, increased tuition costs and declining birth rates are the top three factors for the decline.

“Tuition increases — especially ones the Arizona Legislature removed funding from the colleges — they had to supplement somehow but they never ended up giving that money back,” said Noble.

While he said trade schools and associates degrees are alternatives to a four-year diploma, higher incomes and a stronger ability to weather a down economy are likely outcomes for those who obtain a bachelor’s degree.