It’s always been hard to predict when and where the next wildfire will hit, but scientists in northern New Mexico have developed a way to do just that. The method can be applied to areas across the West.

The work began in 2013 by the U.S. Geological Survey and The Nature Conservancy. It marks the first time scientists have brought together various computer modeling tools for predicting burn probabilities and fire behavior.

They combine that with surveys calculating the steepness of the terrain and the density of pinon, juniper and other trees. That gives scientists a good idea of where for post-fire flooding hotspots could pop up.

A Nature Conservancy spokesperson said federal funds are tight for forest-restoration effortsmand this new tool will allow land managers to target those areas that have the highest risk of flooding and debris flows.