Pollster predicts $800 million will be spent on political ads in Arizona

Published: Tuesday, January 2, 2024 - 2:54pm
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Arizonans will head to the polls for the presidential preference election in less than three months.

According to pollster Mike Noble with Noble Predictive Insights, you can expect to start seeing political ads around those dates, beginning in the next few months and then picking up steam in time for the August primaries.

“We’re gonna see kind of like a slow trickle at first, in this first quarter of this year — January, February, March,” said Noble. “But you’re really gonna see it start to escalate, probably, come April, peaking a little bit closer toward early August.”

With heightened interest in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race and the state’s role in the presidential election, Noble predicts roughly $800 million will be spent on political ads in Arizona, with a focus on radio and TV advertisements.

“So, a deluge of money coming in at the last minute,” Noble said, “but also you’re gonna have a lot of people buying ahead of time. So kind of the more conservative, thoughtful folks. And then the other folks that are just reacting and have to dump the money in.”

Because compared to methods like direct mail or phone calls: “Nothing moves the needle quite like broadcasting.”

Noble predicts that, out of all 50 states, only California will see more revenue from political ads. He added that that’s only because media costs there are triple what’s charged in Arizona.

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