KJZZ's Friday NewsCap: 1864 abortion ban would be an 'absolute disaster' for Arizona and Republicans
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KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
Paul Bentz of HighGround and Dawn Penich-Thacker of Agave Strategy joined The Show to talk about to talk about this week’s oral arguments at the Arizona Supreme Court over abortion laws, an endorsement in a crowded congressional primary field and more.
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Interview highlights
On the Arizona Supreme Court deciding between a near-total abortion ban from 1864 and a 15-week ban passed in 2022
DAWN PENICH-THACKER: Well, in watching the oral arguments and kind of listening to the questions that the justices asked, if pushed to make a prediction, I think that they will come back and uphold the 15-week ban, so the law passed by the Legislature in 2022. And for folks in favor of reproductive rights, bodily autonomy, that’s a good thing. It’s not far enough. It’s still a 15-week ban that doesn’t allow exceptions for rape or incest. And that’s why people will still be circulating and signing that citizens initiative to expand abortion rights on the 2024 ballot.
MARK BRODIE: Yeah. Paul, what did you see from the arguments on Tuesday?
PAUL BENTZ: Well, I mean, they went back and forth here questioning what was the intention of a law, if you never expect it actually to go into effect or that you create the loophole there. I think the governor, former Gov. [Doug] Ducey, made it abundantly clear that he thought 15-week ban was the law of the land, and he appointed several of these justices.
You know, they have to read the tea leaves themselves. This is a retention and a political position. And going to the territorial law would be an absolute disaster, not only for the state but also for Republicans.
BRODIE: Well so, as Dawn mentioned, Paul, there is an effort ongoing to collect signatures to put an initiative, a constitutional amendment on the ballot. Do you get the sense that based on what the justices rule, will that impact either the effort to collect signatures or — of course, depending on when the ruling comes out — or might it affect how it affects turnout, how people decide to vote on it?
BENTZ: Certainly, I think if they were to put the territorial ban in place, that would be a steroid shot for the signature gathering effort. I think they’re going to qualify for the ballot no matter what. But if they were to go to the near-total ban — near criminalization of abortion, which is incredibly unpopular among the electorate — that would be a major driver among the electorate. I think going to the 15-week proposal would take a little bit of wind out of the sails, maybe for some of the undecided, unaffiliated voters who are maybe on the fence about it. But I still think either way it goes, they’re likely to qualify.
BRODIE: Dawn, do you think that if, as Paul suggests and you predicted as well when pushed. that if the justices decide to stick with the court of appeals ruling at the 15-week ban, does that maybe take some of the urgency out of the issue of getting this initiative on the ballot and passed?
PENICH-THACKER: I think to an extremely minuscule level. You know, I’m in touch with the folks working on signature collection. Folks understand that there is a 15-week ban. You know, they are not confused about what the choices are. And they still want more time. They still want that decision to be between patients and doctors, not politicians. And they’re very aware of the fact that a 15-week ban with no exceptions for rape and incest is the law of the land now. And I predict the judges will likely uphold that. But another Legislature could change it again. And the Legislature after that could change it again. And that notion is why the citizens initiative is for a constitutional amendment to settle the question once and for all, that providers and patients should have this decision making power because the Legislature is unreliable in terms of any stance, one direction or another. And that’s ultimately what voters don’t like when it comes to this question.
BRODIE: So the argument right now becomes, here’s the status quo. It’s not OK, we need to change it and here’s how.
PENICH-THACKER: Right. Right. So it’s popular for most voters to be able to have that decision making power in their own hands, that’s what the initiative does. And so will it have some impact on the margins? Sure. But it changes absolutely nothing about my prediction that the initiative will qualify and it will go on to win big at the ballot.
BRODIE: Paul, we have seen, in instance after instance, these kinds of initiatives, winning at the ballot box in state after state, and conversely efforts to to ban abortion or restrict it more stringently have failed in state after state. Is there any reason to think that if this initiative qualifies for the ballot, anything would be different here?
BENTZ: No. You look at Ohio and you look at other places, and we’ve seen similar results. I expect not only would it have a strong likelihood of passage, but it also has a strong likelihood of turning out younger voters, more unaffiliated voters, more folks that maybe want to maybe sit on the sidelines because it’s a rematch, likely between Trump and Biden. Maybe that lack of enthusiasm might be pushed by something like this. And this is the case in Arizona for many years, whether it’s education funding or marijuana legalization. We’ve seen time and again the Legislature not take action. A citizens group come along and put an initiative together, and it passes overwhelmingly. And that’s why we see the Legislature continue to try to put more and more limitations on the initiative, because they've been threatened by it because their lack of action has turned into citizens action.
BRODIE: Is it too simplistic to say that these kinds of initiatives — like let’s take the abortion initiative if it makes the ballot, as you say, turns out younger people, unaffiliated voters — is it too simplistic to say that helps other Democrats on the ballot?
BENTZ: No, I think that’s exactly what it does. Especially with Biden’s low approval ratings numbers right now and certainly the new efforts to attract Hispanic voters and other things that we’ve seen the Biden administration do, I think from the top of the ticket on down, they need something like this to enthuse those younger voters. The larger the turnout is in the state of Arizona, that means more younger voters, more unaffiliated voters, low efficacy voters that maybe don’t show up. Those folks tend to at least lean a little bit more progressive. It should help Democrats across the ballot if it were to be on the ballot.
BRODIE: Dawn, do you agree with that?
PENICH-THACKER: Yeah, I think so. I mean, I’ll say of my my own folks that the Democrats certainly can’t sit back on our laurels or anything and not make the case for why Biden needs to be reelected, why we need to take control or at least tie the Legislature in order to see these state level decisions, which, you know, if you look at the U.S. Supreme Court more and more, it’s your state laws, your local laws that really touch your life. And so the Democrats are still going to need to make a good case for “Don’t just vote for that question at the very bottom of the ballot. Flip that over and remember which party is actually fighting for the things that you believe in.”
On former President Donald Trump endorsing Abe Hamadeh in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District
BENTZ: Well, first thing is that the CD8 primary is the election. It’s a +11 registration advantage for Republicans. It’s a +17 advantage in the actual participation. Whoever wins this primary will win this general election. It’s the second reddest district in the state, only second to CD9 represented by Paul Gosar. So whoever wins this Republican primary will win the general election. I’m a little bit surprised that Trump decided to wade in. His power, however, has been in crowded primaries. Him putting his thumb on the scale, picking a winner has been generally well regarded. It’s in those two-people races or in some of those competitive races that he hasn’t done as well.
So it’s sort of like picking the favorite in a group of longshots. You know, it’s a lot easier then, in a crowded field like that. And so it certainly will help Hamadeh. At the same time, Hamadeh has got his own baggage. We’ve seen last time around in the Lesko race several years ago, the frontrunner was immediately taken down by a series of attacks.
I think it’s going to be an incredibly negative and nasty race. I think that we will — because Hamadeh is now Trump’s chosen one — we’re going to see a lot of exposure, a lot of coverage, a lot of revelations about him. Don’t count out Ben Toma. He’s represented the district for a long time. He recently announced the endorsement of [former U.S. Sen.] Jon Kyl.
He’s got Debbie Lesko’s endorsement. She’s incredibly popular in Sun City. You know, he’s in the Legislature right now and has a track record of achievements that he can point to. I certainly think that this endorsement of Hamadeh right now puts him in the lead, but I’m not sure if he can maintain it.
BRODIE: We should mention, Dawn, this race also includes former Rep. Trent Franks, a congressman who held that seat before basically being forced to resign over a scandal. How much do you think this endorsement helps Hamadeh? As Paul said. It’s a crowded primary but still a long way to go. I mean, we’re still months away from anybody casting votes here.
PENICH-THACKER: Yeah, well, I don’t know. Should we mention Trent Franks? I’m not sure I agree with the premise there, but no, it’ll be fascinating. I mean, this is essentially a contest of which shade of red is this district going to elect, the overtly extreme MAGA or, you know, kind of I’m going to call him like a hometown boy, a local boy, you know, in terms of the district in Toma,, who is certainly is a conservative voter and leader. They will not be able to poke any holes and accuse him of any liberalism or anything.
So it’ll be interesting to watch. I would be remiss as the lefty on the panel here to not say that there is a Democrat in the race. His name is Greg Whitten. Voters can go look him up. I have nothing to do with his campaign. But folks out there do have a choice. But the last time this district elected a Democrat, it was in 1980, and that Democrat went on to re-register as a Republican in the middle of his tenure.
BRODIE: So perhaps to Paul’s point about the voter registration advantage for Republicans in that district.
PENICH-THACKER: Correct.
